The Primer playbook

Sectors and ideas

Explore themes and find questions worth investigating.

Guide 01

Develop and test a thematic view

A theme is a change that could affect several companies, such as rising energy costs or more factory automation. Explain how it would affect the businesses, then test that explanation.

Do this

Start a session and describe the theme in one sentence. Name the companies or sector you want to examine.
Ask how the theme could change demand, prices, costs or investment for each business.
Ask for evidence supporting and challenging the view. Include what companies are saying and what their figures show.
Choose the companies with the clearest exposure and the evidence you will watch next. Save the useful work as a dated Note.

Try this

“Test this thematic view: [view]. Focus on [companies or sector] over [time horizon]. Explain the practical route from the theme to demand, prices, costs, investment and earnings. Identify companies with direct exposure and those where the connection is weaker. Gather dated evidence for and against the view, separating reported facts from assumptions. Tell me what would prove the view wrong and which evidence I should watch next.”

Guide 02

Explore new investment angles

An angle is a specific question that could lead to a useful new conclusion. Ask Primer to find questions worth researching, rather than another general company summary.

Do this

Start a company or multi-company session. Explain the debates you already know and attach relevant research.
Ask Primer to use recent Reports and company documents to identify a few questions that are still open.
Ask it to rank those questions by importance and whether there is enough evidence to investigate them.
Pick one question. Ask Primer to do the supporting work and explain whether it found anything that changes your understanding.

Try this

“Find a useful new research angle on [companies]. Start from the debates in the latest available Primer Reports and my attached work, checking whether recent events have made them stale. Suggest up to three specific questions, explain why each matters and what evidence could answer it. Choose the strongest question and propose the work needed to investigate it. Do not force an angle if the evidence is weak or simply repeats what is already known.”

Guide 03

Understand trading narratives

A trading narrative is an explanation for how investors’ expectations and a share price changed. Build a timeline of events and evidence, while keeping possible explanations separate from proven facts.

Do this

Start a company session and choose the date range you want to understand.
Ask Primer to build a timeline of results, guidance changes, major news and share-price moves using the data it can access.
Ask which expectations appear to have changed and what evidence supports that explanation.
Compare with peers and the wider market. Ask what remains unexplained instead of assuming every price move has a clear cause.

Try this

“Help me understand @Company’s trading narrative from [start date] to [end date]. Build a dated timeline of major company events, available share-price changes and relevant sector or market moves. State the data sources and any gaps. Explain how expectations may have changed, with evidence supporting each explanation. Distinguish observed events from inferred causes. Identify what the timeline does not explain and which current debate deserves more research.”

Guide 04

Investigate missed signals

Look back at a surprise and ask whether there were useful clues before it happened. Use only information that was available at the time.

Do this

Start a company session and describe the event that surprised you. Give its date and your previous expectation.
Ask Primer to review earlier company statements, peer results and public data for relevant clues.
Ask it to record when each clue became available and whether you could reasonably have used it before the event.
Decide which clues are worth watching in future. Test them on other periods or companies before building them into your process.

Try this

“Investigate whether there were useful signals before [event at Company on date]. My expectation at the time was [expectation]. Review company disclosures, relevant peer results and public data published before the event. For each signal, give its publication date, why it might have mattered and how strong it looked at the time. Exclude evidence published later from the signal list. Explain false alarms and hindsight risks, then suggest which signals are worth testing on other cases.”

Guide 05

Build evidence for a sector piece

Keep the research for a sector note in one place. Organise it around the claims you need to test, rather than collecting a long pile of unrelated links.

Do this

Start a session and explain the question your sector piece should answer. Give the company list and your proposed argument.
Ask Primer to create a Note with a short outline and the evidence needed for each section.
Research one claim at a time. Ask it to add dated figures, useful excerpts and sources under the right heading, including contradictory evidence.
Review the argument as the evidence builds. Draft only once you can see which claims are supported and which remain uncertain.

Primer Library with search and a Notes type filter — Find the sector Note again in Library. Search for its title or use the Notes filter.

Try this

“Help me build the evidence for a sector piece on [question], covering [companies]. My proposed argument is [argument]. Create a Note called [title] with an outline and the evidence each section needs. Research the most important claim first, then add dated company, industry and public-data evidence with source links. Include evidence that challenges the argument and list gaps clearly. Show me which parts of the outline are ready to draft and which need more work.”

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